During the primary season pollsters had some rough moments. And the general election campaign is likely to present some unique challenges. That's our topic in this edition's "Polls Unboxed."
In any election, regardless of candidates, the problem pollsters face is not everyone we talk to will vote, and not everyone who votes talks to pollsters.
There are some specific pitfalls. First, pollsters need to identify the people who are really going to vote on Election Day. Second, we need to figure out how many people in each demographic - like seniors, Latinos, and women - will vote. And third, there are the undecided voters who can really determine the winner in a close race.
The contest between Obama and McCain could be a polling nightmare. Why?
The short answer...each campaign's core voters.
Young voters support Obama. They're more likely to use cell phones, but most pre-election polls don't include cell phone numbers.
McCain's trying to attract working class voters. They're less likely to participate in surveys.
And finally, there's lots of new energy in this election so, pollsters who rely on past voting patterns may run into trouble.
Now, some argue polls are wrong because people lie to pollsters especially when race is a factor, but we don't buy that.
That's right, that excuse is a pollster cop-out. Even in New Hampshire where Clinton was the surprise winner, Obama ran pretty much as expected. It was late breaking undecided voters and people switching from other candidates to Clinton that created the confusion.